Resilient and Sustainable Economy in Iraq under Climate Change Challenges

Authors

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.25120/jre.5.2.2025.4287

Keywords:

: climate variability; Iraq; agricultural GDP; non-oil GDP; temperature; precipitation; drought; time-series econometrics; adaptation policy..

Abstract

This paper quantifies how climate variability has shaped Iraq’s economic performance over 1980–2023. We merge sectoral national accounts agricultural and non-oil GDP in constant 2015 USD with climate indicators (temperature anomalies in °C, precipitation in mm, and a standardized drought index). Sector-specific time-series models are estimated with HAC-robust errors and complemented by ARDL bounds tests and VAR/VECM diagnostics. Higher temperatures and more severe droughts are significantly associated with lower agricultural GDP growth, while above-trend precipitation supports agricultural—and to a lesser extent non-oil growth. Agriculture is markedly more climate-sensitive than other sectors, reflecting Iraq’s water stress and limited diversification. Results are robust to alternative lag structures, standardized regressors, structural-break controls, and out-of-sample checks. The evidence supports a policy mix that couples economic diversification with improved water governance and climate-smart technologies (irrigation efficiency, drought-tolerant crops, renewable energy). Clear reporting of units and transformations enhances reproducibility and policy relevance.

References

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Published

2025-12-30

How to Cite

Hassan, B., & Faraj, S. (2025). Resilient and Sustainable Economy in Iraq under Climate Change Challenges. Journal of Resilient Economies (ISSN: 2653-1917), 5(2). https://doi.org/10.25120/jre.5.2.2025.4287

Issue

Vol. 5 No. 2 (2025): Decolonising Resilience: Power, Care, Culture, and Sustainability in Contemporary Economies

Section

Articles

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Copyright (c) 2025 Basima Hassan, Sakna Faraj

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